Viendo archivo del jueves, 31 agosto 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Aug 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 243 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Aug 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/2328Z from Region 3413 (N09W48). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Sep,
02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 434 km/s at 31/2042Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
31/1658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
31/1708Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Sep), quiet to active
levels on day two (02 Sep) and active to minor storm levels on day three
(03 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Aug 140 Previsto 01 Sep-03 Sep 140/150/150 Media de 90 Días 31 Aug 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Aug 009/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 010/010-011/012-025/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 30% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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