Viendo archivo del jueves, 21 septiembre 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Sep 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 264 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Sep 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
21/1254Z from Region 3435 (N08E16). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 20/2119Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 21/0709Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/1239Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1416 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Sep), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (23 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (24 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Sep a 24 Sep
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Sep 168 Previsto 22 Sep-24 Sep 162/162/165 Media de 90 Días 21 Sep 161
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Sep 015/020 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Sep 008/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 011/015-016/022-018/022
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Sep a 24 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 65% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.3 |
| Último evento clase M | 13/02/2026 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 05/02/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
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| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
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