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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Apr 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 107 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Apr 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/1802Z from Region 3643 (S13E48). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 16/1546Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 16/1304Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 16/1343Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 130 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Apr), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (18 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (19 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Apr a 19 Apr
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Apr 199 Previsto 17 Apr-19 Apr 200/200/180 Media de 90 Días 16 Apr 159
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Apr 007/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Apr 023/029 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 012/015-015/020-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Apr a 19 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 60% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 30/03/2026 | X1.5 |
| Último evento clase M | 04/04/2026 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/04/2026 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (3%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| marzo 2026 | 85.9 +7.7 |
| abril 2026 | 133.3 +47.4 |
| Last 30 days | 96.9 +35.1 |
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