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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 May 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 124 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 May 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
03/0222Z from Region 3663 (N26W03). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05
May, 06 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 03/0418Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 02/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
02/2317Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 May), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (05 May) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (06 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 May a 06 May
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 May 156 Previsto 04 May-06 May 158/155/160 Media de 90 Días 03 May 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 May 024/056 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 May 011/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 013/015-014/020-024/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 May a 06 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 75% | 79% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.21 |
| Último evento clase M | 25/02/2026 | M2.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/03/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (5%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| febrero 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| marzo 2026 | 75 -3.2 |
| Last 30 days | 59.2 -65.5 |