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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jul 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 183 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Jul 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
01/1102Z from Region 3730 (S17W47). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul,
04 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 618 km/s at 30/2246Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
30/2350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/2152Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 290 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (02 Jul, 04 Jul)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (03 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Jul a 04 Jul
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Jul 171 Previsto 02 Jul-04 Jul 180/175/170 Media de 90 Días 01 Jul 179
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Jun 010/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Jul 008/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 010/012-014/018-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Jul a 04 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 65% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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