Viendo archivo del miércoles, 14 agosto 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Aug 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 227 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Aug 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
14/0640Z from Region 3784 (N14W05). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16
Aug, 17 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 14/0051Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
13/2214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (15 Aug, 16 Aug) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Aug a 17 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Aug 248 Previsto 15 Aug-17 Aug 255/260/250 Media de 90 Días 14 Aug 201
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Aug 012/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 006/005-009/008-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Aug a 17 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 18/01/2026 | X1.9 |
| Último evento clase M | 21/01/2026 | M3.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
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| Last 30 days | 119.6 +1.6 |