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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jul 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 204 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Jul 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
22/0404Z from Region 3762 (S13E37). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 333 km/s at 22/1853Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 22/1735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
22/1751Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 107 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Jul), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (24 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day
three (25 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Jul a 25 Jul
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Jul 185 Previsto 23 Jul-25 Jul 185/185/185 Media de 90 Días 22 Jul 186
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Jul 009/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Jul 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 009/010-020/030-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Jul a 25 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 35% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 20% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 75% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 02/02/2026 | X1.6 |
| Último evento clase M | 03/02/2026 | M1.7 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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