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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jul 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 203 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jul 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/0834Z from Region 3751 (S08W28). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 353 km/s at 21/1434Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
21/1537Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/1613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jul a 24 Jul
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jul 198 Previsto 22 Jul-24 Jul 195/190/190 Media de 90 Días 21 Jul 187
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jul 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 008/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jul a 24 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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