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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jul 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 205 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Jul 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
23/1428Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 334 km/s at 23/2003Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 23/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/2154Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 24 pfu at 23/1040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (24 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (25 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (26
Jul). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (24 Jul) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (25
Jul, 26 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Jul a 26 Jul
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 99% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Jul 176 Previsto 24 Jul-26 Jul 180/182/180 Media de 90 Días 23 Jul 186
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Jul 009/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Jul 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 019/024-011/012-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Jul a 26 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 40% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 02/01/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
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