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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Aug 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 232 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Aug 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/0000Z from Region 3796 (S03E55). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 19/0724Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 19/0128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
19/1854Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Aug, 21 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (22 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Aug a 22 Aug
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Aug 239 Previsto 20 Aug-22 Aug 240/245/240 Media de 90 Días 19 Aug 203
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Aug 015/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Aug 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 006/005-006/005-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Aug a 22 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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