Viendo archivo del sábado, 27 julio 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jul 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 209 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Jul 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
27/0237Z from Region 3766 (S07E19). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 26/2104Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 27/1330Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
27/0829Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 179 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (29 Jul) and quiet to major storm levels on day
three (30 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Jul a 30 Jul
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Jul 204 Previsto 28 Jul-30 Jul 180/180/190 Media de 90 Días 27 Jul 187
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Jul 023/027 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Jul 014/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 007/008-013/018-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Jul a 30 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 25% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 50% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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