Viendo archivo del martes, 13 agosto 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Aug 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 226 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Aug 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/2257Z from Region 3784 (N15E21). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Aug, 15
Aug, 16 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 12/2151Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 13/0358Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 12/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 119 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug, 16
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (14
Aug) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (15 Aug, 16 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Aug a 16 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Aug 260 Previsto 14 Aug-16 Aug 270/270/270 Media de 90 Días 13 Aug 201
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Aug 051/123 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Aug 016/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 007/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Aug a 16 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
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