Viendo archivo del sábado, 17 agosto 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Aug 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 230 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Aug 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/1033Z from Region 3784 (N15W47). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 17/1631Z. Total IMF
reached 24 nT at 17/1628Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-21 nT at 17/1622Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 272 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (18 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (19 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (20
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Aug a 20 Aug
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Aug 230 Previsto 18 Aug-20 Aug 220/215/215 Media de 90 Días 17 Aug 202
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Aug 011/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Aug 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 020/025-011/010-006/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Aug a 20 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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