Viendo archivo del viernes, 13 septiembre 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Sep 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 257 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Sep 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
13/0656Z from Region 3811 (S13W0*). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 619 km/s at 13/0104Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 12/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 13/2015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1135 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and three (14 Sep,
16 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (15 Sep). Protons have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14
Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Sep a 16 Sep
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Sep 186 Previsto 14 Sep-16 Sep 185/180/180 Media de 90 Días 13 Sep 217
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Sep 036/078 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Sep 025/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 017/024-012/015-016/022
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Sep a 16 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 45% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
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