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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Sep 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 259 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Sep 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/1528Z from Region 3824 (S04W26). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (16 Sep) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 15/0323Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 14/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
15/1548Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 15/1455Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1692 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (16 Sep), quiet to
major storm levels on day two (17 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (18 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (16 Sep), have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day
two (17 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three
(18 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Sep a 18 Sep
| Clase M | 55% | 45% | 40% |
| Clase X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Sep 173 Previsto 16 Sep-18 Sep 175/170/170 Media de 90 Días 15 Sep 217
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Sep 022/023 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Sep 017/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 045/070-019/028-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Sep a 18 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 25% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 90% | 80% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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