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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Aug 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 234 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Aug 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/0602Z from Region 3796 (S03E26). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 21/2041Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/2044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/1532Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 152 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (23 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (24 Aug).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Aug a 24 Aug
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Aug 239 Previsto 22 Aug-24 Aug 240/240/245 Media de 90 Días 21 Aug 204
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Aug 009/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Aug 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 011/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Aug a 24 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.21 |
| Último evento clase M | 13/03/2026 | M1.19 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 14/03/2026 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (4%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| febrero 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| marzo 2026 | 83.6 +5.4 |
| Last 30 days | 59 -67.6 |