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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Sep 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 261 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Sep 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
16/2357Z from Region 3825 (S16E20). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (18 Sep,
19 Sep) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (20 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 650 km/s at 17/0700Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 17/0143Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-18 nT at 17/0039Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 33 pfu at 17/1050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2394 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (19 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (20
Sep). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (18 Sep)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (19
Sep, 20 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Sep a 20 Sep
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Clase X | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Sep 165 Previsto 18 Sep-20 Sep 162/162/155 Media de 90 Días 17 Sep 216
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Sep 019/023 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Sep 045/072 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 011/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Sep a 20 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
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