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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Sep 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 252 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Sep 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/1530Z from Region 3813 (S22W11). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 08/1143Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 08/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
08/2015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 187 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Sep), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (10 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (11 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Sep a 11 Sep
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Sep 228 Previsto 09 Sep-11 Sep 225/225/220 Media de 90 Días 08 Sep 215
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Sep 009/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Sep 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 007/010-018/030-018/022
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Sep a 11 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 25% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 75% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 18/01/2026 | X1.9 |
| Último evento clase M | 21/01/2026 | M3.4 |
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