Viendo archivo del sábado, 5 octubre 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Oct 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 279 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Oct 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0844Z from Region 3842 (S14W35). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07
Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 648 km/s at 04/2336Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 05/0745Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/2138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 142 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (06 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (07 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (08 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one
and two (06 Oct, 07 Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day
three (08 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Oct a 08 Oct
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Oct 277 Previsto 06 Oct-08 Oct 280/280/270 Media de 90 Días 05 Oct 221
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Oct 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Oct 011/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 036/058-021/028-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Oct a 08 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 15% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 85% | 70% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| noviembre 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| diciembre 2025 | 135.1 +43.3 |
| Last 30 days | 107.1 +10.8 |