Viendo archivo del sábado, 14 septiembre 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Sep 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 258 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Sep 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X4 event observed at
14/1529Z from Region 3825 (S18E48). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 13/2102Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 14/1543Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 13/2119Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 14/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 856 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (15 Sep), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (16 Sep) and quiet to major storm levels
on day three (17 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Sep 172 Previsto 15 Sep-17 Sep 175/175/170 Media de 90 Días 14 Sep 217
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Sep 022/031 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Sep 020/024 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 013/018-045/070-019/028
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 50% | 25% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 90% | 80% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
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|---|---|
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| diciembre 2025 | 128 +36.2 |
| Last 30 days | 110.1 +18.9 |