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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Oct 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 288 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Oct 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
14/0017Z from Region 3848 (N15W90). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (15 Oct,
16 Oct) and likely to be moderate on day three (17 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 468 km/s at 14/0000Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
14/1908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
14/2016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 637 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Oct), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (16 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (17 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (15 Oct, 16 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Oct a 17 Oct
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Oct 182 Previsto 15 Oct-17 Oct 180/180/175 Media de 90 Días 14 Oct 222
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Oct 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Oct 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 011/012-017/025-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Oct a 17 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
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