Viendo archivo del sábado, 12 octubre 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Oct 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 286 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Oct 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
11/2320Z from Region 3842 (S13, L=181). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14
Oct, 15 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 853 km/s at 12/0830Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 11/2217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 12/0943Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 432 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14
Oct, 15 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Oct a 15 Oct
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Oct 214 Previsto 13 Oct-15 Oct 215/210/210 Media de 90 Días 12 Oct 223
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Oct 068/112 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Oct 016/024 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 011/012-009/010-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Oct a 15 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 35% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| noviembre 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| diciembre 2025 | 139.6 +47.8 |
| Last 30 days | 106.8 +8.5 |