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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Oct 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 287 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Oct 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
13/0657Z from Region 3848 (N13W79). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 13/0330Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 13/0521Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/1209Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 380 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct) and
unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16 Oct). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Oct,
15 Oct, 16 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Oct a 16 Oct
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Oct 195 Previsto 14 Oct-16 Oct 200/200/200 Media de 90 Días 13 Oct 223
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Oct 016/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Oct 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 009/010-011/012-017/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Oct a 16 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 40% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
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| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
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