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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Jan 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 15 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jan 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
15/0856Z from Region 3961 (S09E58). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan,
18 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 571 km/s at 15/0104Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 15/1039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 15/1515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 900 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jan a 18 Jan
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jan 174 Previsto 16 Jan-18 Jan 180/190/190 Media de 90 Días 15 Jan 198
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jan 010/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jan 013/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 007/008-007/008-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jan a 18 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 02/01/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| enero 2026 | 119.3 -4.8 |
| Last 30 days | 108.2 +0.2 |