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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Jan 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 16 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Jan 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
16/0726Z from Region 3964 (N07W22). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 16/0147Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 16/0831Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
16/1847Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 593 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Jan a 19 Jan
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Jan 208 Previsto 17 Jan-19 Jan 210/210/215 Media de 90 Días 16 Jan 198
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Jan 011/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Jan 011/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 012/015-011/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Jan a 19 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 18/01/2026 | X1.9 |
| Último evento clase M | 21/01/2026 | M3.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| enero 2026 | 119.2 -4.8 |
| Last 30 days | 119.2 +0.9 |