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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Feb 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 41 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Feb 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/0046Z from Region 3981 (N07W84). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (11 Feb) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (12 Feb, 13 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 10/0417Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 09/2237Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 09/2354Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 658 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (11 Feb), quiet to active
levels on day two (12 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (13 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (11 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Feb a 13 Feb
| Clase M | 55% | 40% | 30% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Feb 159 Previsto 11 Feb-13 Feb 160/160/155 Media de 90 Días 10 Feb 191
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Feb 014/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Feb 016/023 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 015/018-012/015-017/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Feb a 13 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 55% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.3 |
| Último evento clase M | 13/02/2026 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 05/02/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| enero 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| febrero 2026 | 121.7 +9.1 |
| Last 30 days | 131.5 +34.7 |