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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Aug 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 243 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Aug 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 31/1856Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 31/0249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
31/0720Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 393 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (01 Sep), active to
severe storm levels on day two (02 Sep) and quiet to active levels on
day three (03 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Aug 217 Previsto 01 Sep-03 Sep 215/210/200 Media de 90 Días 31 Aug 143
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Aug 008/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 007/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 016/020-039/055-009/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 35% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 79% | 85% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 02/01/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| enero 2026 | 112.1 -11.9 |
| Last 30 days | 105.6 -3.7 |