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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2026 Jan 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 21 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jan 2026IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 859 km/s at 20/2234Z. Total
IMF reached 17 nT at 20/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -15 nT at 20/2100Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 85 pfu at 20/2210Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 3,332 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (22 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (23 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (24 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(22 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (23 Jan, 24 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jan a 24 Jan
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 45% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jan 188 Previsto 22 Jan-24 Jan 185/180/180 Media de 90 Días 21 Jan 147
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jan 091/143 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jan 045/074 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 025/032-011/015-009/009
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jan a 24 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 45% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 03/02/2026 | X1.5 |
| Último evento clase M | 03/02/2026 | M3.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| febrero 2026 | 133 +9 |
| Last 30 days | 120.6 +10.9 |