Prohlížíte si archiv středa 13. října 2021

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Oct 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
13 Oct 2021	084	014
14 Oct 2021	084	020
15 Oct 2021	084	018

Bulletin

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 40%, with a slight chance for an M flare.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 2 MeV electron fluence were at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and are both expected to increase to moderate levels in the next 24 hours as a response to the ICME which arrived on October 12.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 425 and 510 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 425 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between about 1 and 15 nT, and has returned to nominal values of about 5 nT around 22h UT on October 12. IMF orientation was variable. Bz was mostly below -5 nT between 12h and 14h UT on October 12, with a minimum of -10 nT. A high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth on October 13. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected on October 13, 14 and 15.

Quiet to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 5; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible on October 13, 14 and 15 after the arrival of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole, which is expected on October 13.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 016, na základě 19 stanic.

Solární indexy za 12 Oct 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	028
10cm sluneční tok	084
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Odhadovaný Ap	055
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	015 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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