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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Nov 09 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
09 Nov 2021	086	007
10 Nov 2021	086	006
11 Nov 2021	086	006

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels with only B-class flaring over the past 24 hours. There are three numbered active regions (ARs) on the visible disc, namely NOAA 2893 (a stable alpha), NOAA 2894 (beta) and NOAA 2895 (beta). None of them is showing significant levels of activity. Two other faint newly emerged ARs are visible around N23W62 and S26W68 and will be further monitored. Very to low levels of flaring activity are expected for the next 24 hours with 30% chance for C-class flares.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux has oscillated around the 1000 pfu threshold is expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to slowly return towards nominal levels in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained at background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity further decreased in magnitude with an average speed of about 385 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained weak in the range of 0.45 to 6 nT with a minimum Bz component of -4.2 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field switched orientation and is now directed away from the Sun (in the positive sector). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain mostly at background solar wind conditions.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet with a single interval of globally unsettled conditions due to the arrival of a weak transient structure in the solar wind. This resulted in locally active conditions for the period 21 till midnight UTC on Nov 08. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible isolated unsettled to active periods. A small negative polarity mid- latitude coronal hole has crossed the central meridian over the night and might result in unsettled to active conditions early on Nov 12.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 044, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 08 Nov 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	088
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	039 - Na základě 29 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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