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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Nov 08 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
08 Nov 2021	088	004
09 Nov 2021	087	004
10 Nov 2021	087	006

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with 2 C-class flares observed this morning. There are two numbered active regions (ARs) on the visible disc, namely NOAA 2893 (a stable alpha) and NOAA 2894 (beta). NOAA 2891 (previously alpha) has now decayed into plage and is rotating behind the west limb. A new bi-polar AR (beta) has developed around N23E57 and produced a C1.2 (peak time 07:51 UTC) and C1.0 (peak time 09:30 UTC) class flares. The X-ray flare activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours with minor chance for M-class flaring from the emerging AR in the north-east.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux has oscillated around the 1000 pfu threshold, with current values around 2000 pfu. The greater than 2MeV electron flux is expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours all solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have returned to background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed weakly varied between 394 and 494 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was weak in the range of 2.7 and 5 nT, with a very weak Bz component varying between -2.5 to +4.2 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain mostly at background solar wind conditions. Minor enhancements are possible, though not likely, due to potential arrival of a HSS from the tiny equatorial coronal hole (CH), which crossed the central meridian on Nov 04th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with a possibility for isolated unsettled intervals, should a HSS from the above mentioned CH arrive to the Earth.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 037, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 07 Nov 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	088
AK Chambon La Forêt	003
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	005
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	028 - Na základě 25 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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