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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Feb 11 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
11 Feb 2022	118	025
12 Feb 2022	118	012
13 Feb 2022	118	025

Bulletin

X-ray flux remained below C level throughout the period. Region 2941 (Catania group 26) further simplified, reducing its intermediate spots. Regarding the regions emerging in the neighborhood of NOAA region 2939 (Catania group 22) as mentioned yesterday: Catania group 30 was shortlived but Catania group 29 (NOAA region 2944) seems to persist as a simple unipolar region while another simple group (Catania group 31) emerged just to the East of NOAA region 2939 (Catania group 22). Two other small bipolar regions appeared on disc: Catania group 33 (NOAA region) rotating onto the disc from the East, and Catania group 32 emerging at S20W25. Flaring at C level is likely..

SoHO LASCO C2 coronagraph data show a partial halo CME from 00:48UT onwards. The CME is directed primarily to the North-West from Earth perspective with an angular width stretching to 270 degrees. Combined with STEREO A cor2 coronagraph data (where the CME is seen as full halo and primarily directed to the North-East from that perspective) the CME is analysed to be backward and will not influence Earth. No Earth directed CME's have been observed in coronagraph data.

A recurrent equatorial negative polarity Coronal Hole has crossed the central meridian in the past period and is expected to influence Solar wind at Earth from February 13 onwards.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu alert threshold at the start of the period, but afterwards decreased and remained below the threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during the next period.

Solar wind conditions were characterized by the passing of the CME core. Solar wind speed was in a moderate 400-450 km/s range while the magnetic field magnitude was enhanced between 10-15nT throughout the period. The North-South orientation of the magnetic field became pronounced Southward early in the period (Bz=-13nT) and then evolved slowly over the course of the period into a pronounced Northward direction currently. Enhanced but decreasing solar wind conditions will continue in the wake of the CME passage. On February 13 we then expect to see new enhanced Solar wind conditions from the high speed stream of the equatorial coronal hole that has just crossed the central meridian.

Minor geomagnetic storms (NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 5) have been observed, associated to the strong Southward magnetic field orientation of the Solar wind. Further active conditions and potentially minor geomagnetic storm episodes are possible in the wake of the CME and later on February 13 with the high speed stream.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 080, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 10 Feb 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	079
10cm sluneční tok	118
AK Chambon La Forêt	044
AK Wingst	029
Odhadovaný Ap	029
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	072 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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