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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Mar 10 1302 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
10 Mar 2022	115	010
11 Mar 2022	114	011
12 Mar 2022	114	005

Bulletin

Solar activity over the past 24 hours was at very low to low levels with a single C-class flare. There remain to be six numbered active regions on the visible disc. NOAA 2963 has turned into a plage and a new active region (NOAA 2966, beta) has been numbered in the south-west quadrant near NOAA 2964 (beta). A C1.0-class flare, peak time 12:49 UT on March 9th, was produced by active region NOAA 2965, which has now fully rotated on the disc and is classified as magnetic type beta. This region continues to produce high B-class flaring and might produce more C-class flares in the next 24 hours. NOAA 2957 and NOAA 2962 have reduced their magnetic complexity and are now classified as alpha. NOAA 2960 remains the largest active region on the visible disc, but has shown signs of decay, losing half of its sun spots and reducing its underlying magnetic configuration from beta-gamma to beta. The rest of the active regions are classifies as magnetic type beta and have remained inactive and stable. The X-ray flare activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the next 24 hours with remaining chances for C-class flaring.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux has continuously exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold, but at a lower level than the previous day. The greater than 2MeV electron flux is expected to remain elevated, but further decrease over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was recorded at moderate levels and is expected to remain at moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have further declined towards slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity was approximately in the range of 340 to 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained weak with a maximum value of 5.8 nT and a minimum Bz of -5.6 nT. The B field was changing orientation, switching back and forth from the negative to the positive sector. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at background slow solar wind conditions throughout the day and possibly show some slight enhancements during the night an early on March 11th with the possible arrival of a glancing blow from the CME initiated by a filament eruption on March 6th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet with short local isolated unsettled periods. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible. Isolated active periods can be expected, though not very probable, on March 11th due to the expected glancing blow from the slow partial halo CME related to the filament eruption on March 6th.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 083, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 09 Mar 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	096
10cm sluneční tok	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	005
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	082 - Na základě 29 stanic

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