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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Apr 06 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
06 Apr 2022	118	018
07 Apr 2022	118	019
08 Apr 2022	116	007

Bulletin

Solar activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with a few low C-class flares. There are five relatively simple numbered active regions on the visible solar disk. The strongest activity was a C1.9-class flare (peak time 22:41 UT on April 5th) from a simple unipolar active region NOAA 2985 (alpha) in the south-east quadrant. Two C1.3-class flares were produced by the neighbouring active regions NOAA 2978 (beta) and NOAA 2981 (beta) with corresponding peak times at 04:20 UT and 06:23 UT on April 6th, respectively. NOAA 2982 has decayed into plage and a new unipolar active region NOAA 2986 (alpha) was numbered in the north-west quadrant. A few simple active regions have rotated from behind the south-east limb, but have not shown any significant activity. The X-ray flare activity is expected to be at low levels for the next 24 hours.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. A filament erupted around midnight on April 5th to the west of the central meridian, in the area between plage region NOAA 2982 and active region NOAA 2978, but no CME has been detected in the coronagraph imagery related to this event. The CME triggered by the filament eruption in the south-east quadrant around 21:15 UT on April 4th is estimated to mostly miss Earth, yet a minor glancing blow is possible to arrive in the morning of April 9th.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours, though some enhancements are possible related to the expected arrival of the halo CME from April 3rd. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was oscillating around the 1000 pfu threshold is expected to continue to do so within the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours and is expected be at moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have mostly returned to background slow solar wind conditions as the coronal hole responsible for the recent high speed stream is no longer geo- effective. The solar wind velocity smoothly varied in the range of 380 to 459 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 6 nT and a low Bz component of -3.7 nT. The B field was changing orientation from the negative to the positive sector (directed towards and away from the Sun respectively). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain at slow background slow solar wind levels until an expected ICME arrival later today, which is expected to increase the magnetic field and enhance the plasma parameters.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with probable minor storm levels as the CME from April 3rd reaches the Earth. A small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to cross the central meridian today and result in unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions on April 9th. The effect of the expected high speed stream might be mixed with the effect of a possible minor glancing blow from the CME related to the filament eruption on April 4th.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 067, na základě 13 stanic.

Solární indexy za 05 Apr 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	095
10cm sluneční tok	122
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	007
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	076 - Na základě 11 stanic

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