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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Apr 05 1233 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
05 Apr 2022	128	007
06 Apr 2022	125	028
07 Apr 2022	125	019

Bulletin

Solar activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with only four low C-class flares. The largest recorded activity was a C2.7-class flare (peak time 21:13 UT) from a dipole active region NOAA 2982 (beta) in the vicinity of the central meridian. Two C-class flares were produced from the behind the west limb, from previous active regions NOAA 2975 and NOAA 2984. The remaining flaring activity was produced by NOAA 2978 (beta), which is currently the largest active region with largest number of sunspots on the visible solar disk. The X-ray flare activity is expected to be at low levels for the next 24 hours with low chances for M-class flaring.

Two notable CME events were recorded in the available coronagraph imagery related to behind the limb activity in the south-west quadrant and to a prominence eruption at the north-east limb. None of those is expected to have an Earth-directed component. A long filament erupted in the south-east quadrant in the vicinity of NOAA 2982 and was related to the C2.7 class flaring activity. The resulting CME would probably miss the Earth. The full halo CME detected by LASCO C2 coronagraph data on April 3rd is expected to arrive at Earth in the morning of April 6th.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours, though some enhancements are possible related to the expected ICME arrival. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was oscillating around the 1000 pfu threshold is expected to continue to do so within the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to return to be at the border of moderate to nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were under the waning of influence of the high speed stream. The solar wind velocity was gradually decreased towards 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field had a maximum value of 7.8 nT with a minimum Bz of -4.5 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to slowly return towards background slow solar wind conditions today and get enhanced tomorrow with expected ICME arrival.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and registered a single unsettled period locally in Belgium. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected until the end of the day and unsettled to active conditions with minor storm levels are expected for tomorrow and throughout April 7th.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 073, na základě 05 stanic.

Solární indexy za 04 Apr 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	011
Odhadovaný Ap	012
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	071 - Na základě 14 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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