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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Sep 04 1233 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
04 Sep 2022	116	043
05 Sep 2022	116	028
06 Sep 2022	116	013

Bulletin

NOAA AR 3089 (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration) has produced numerous C-class flares in the past 24 hours. The strongest was a C6.4 flare peaking at 03:02 UT. NOAA AR 3093 and 3094 (both beta magnetic field configuration) produced also minor C-class flaring. More C-class flares can be expected, and M-class flares are possible.

No Earth directed CMEs observed in the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is below the 10 pfu mark, and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase due to the arrival of the high speed stream. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase due to the arrival of the high speed stream.

The Earth is inside the fast solar wind from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. The speed has been increasing since yesterday to reach 680 km/s at present, with interplanetary magnetic field magnitude up to 12 nT, and with a Bz component between -5 and -10 nT. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours (with probably lower magnetic fields). Furthermore, a glancing blow from the 2 September CME may occur tomorrow.

As a consequence of the high speed solar wind arrival, moderate storm conditions were observed at planetary levels (Kp up to 6) between 03 and 09 UT, while locally K_Dourbes reached 5. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 069, na základě 19 stanic.

Solární indexy za 03 Sep 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	123
AK Chambon La Forêt	047
AK Wingst	026
Odhadovaný Ap	029
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	066 - Na základě 22 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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