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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Sep 08 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm tok	Ap
08 Sep 2023	163	009
09 Sep 2023	165	009
10 Sep 2023	160	006

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

During last 24 hour solar flaring activity was at the C-class level with isolated M-class flare observed on September 07. The GOES M 2.1 flare which peaked at 19:09 UT originated from the Catania sunspot group 48 (NOAA AR 3425). Presently available data do not show on disc signatures of the possibly associated CME, i.e., EIT wave and coronal dimming. Out of eight active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disc, one has beta-gamma configuration, and five active regions have beta configuration of the photospheric magnetic field which indicates the large probability for C-class flaring to continue in the coming hours. The M-class flares are also possible with about 50 percent probability.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

The CME associated with the M 2.1 flare was rather narrow and slow and it is not expected to arrive to Earth. There were no other possibly Earth directed CMEs observed in the presently available data.

Solární bouře

Earth is presently inside the slow solar wind with velocity of about 350 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT.

Geomagnetismus

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled, and we expect them to stay so in the coming hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at the background levels and we do not expect significant change in the coming hours. As the Catania sunspot group 41 (NOAA AR 3421) has increased in the complexity of its photospheric magnetic field and it is approaching to the West solar limb, the strong flaring activity in the coming days could be associated with the particle event.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has continue to fluctuate around the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence is at normal level. We do not expect significant change in these parameters in the coming hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 126, na základě 22 stanic.

Solární indexy za 07 Sep 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	148
10cm sluneční tok	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	007
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	141 - Na základě 29 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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