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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Feb 08 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
08 Feb 2025	174	017
09 Feb 2025	170	024
10 Feb 2025	166	017

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with one M-class flare and multiple C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M2.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3555) peaking at 09:27 UTC on February 08, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981; beta-delta). There are currently eleven numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981; beta- delta), that remains the largest and magnetically most complex active region on the disk was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. Isolated low C-class flaring was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3978; beta- gamma), SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977; alpha) and SIDC Sunspot Group 388 (NOAA Active Region 3976, alpha), that are currently approaching the west limb and by SIDC Sunspot Group 378 (NOAA Active Region 3986, alpha). Other regions on the disk have simple configurations of their photospheric magnetic fields (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) became slightly elevated. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 10 nT at 11:35 on February 08. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -9 nT and 7 nT. The solar wind speed varied between 340 and 390 km/s. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated during the next days, with a further enhancement possible on February 09, due to high speed stream arrival associated with negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 88).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active conditions globally (NOAA Kp: 4-) between 06:00 and 09:00 UTC on February 08. Locally over Belgium only quiet to unsettled conditions were observed (K Bel 1-3). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next days, with a chance of isolated active or minor storm periods in response to the high-speed stream arrival.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase if any high energy flares or eruptions occur.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 118, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 07 Feb 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	182
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	153 - Na základě 05 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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