Viewing archive of Monday, 16 September 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Sep 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 16 SEP 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW AS THE VISIBLE DISK
REMAINS QUIET AND SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF
MINOR STORMING OCCURRING DURING THE INTERVAL 16/0600-0900Z.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS CONTINUE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS, WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED INTERVALS OF MINOR
STORMING, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 17 SEP to 19 SEP
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 SEP 068 Predicted 17 SEP-19 SEP 068/069/070 90 Day Mean 16 SEP 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 SEP 015/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 SEP 020/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 SEP-19 SEP 015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 SEP to 19 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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