Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 September 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Sep 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 SEP 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK IS SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AS THE HIGH
SOLAR WIND SPEEDS HAVE ABATED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS ANOTHER HIGH SPEED STREAM IS ANTICIPATED.
THIS RECURRENT DISTURBANCE SHOULD END BY 27 SEPTEMBER.
III. Event Probabilities 25 SEP to 27 SEP
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 SEP 070 Predicted 25 SEP-27 SEP 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 24 SEP 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 SEP 022/025 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 SEP 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 SEP-27 SEP 025/030-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 SEP to 27 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 10% |
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