Viewing archive of Friday, 18 October 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Oct 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 OCT 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z THE SUN REMAINED SPOTLESS AND ACTIVITY CONTINUED
VERY LOW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM. SOME
HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES INCREASED AND
DENSITIES DECREASED INDICATING THE BELATED ARRIVAL OF THE
CORONAL HOLE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED ON 17 OCT. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES WERE MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH 20 OCT.
QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 21 OCT AS THE
CURRENT CORONAL HOLE DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. ENERGETIC
ELECTION FLUXES SHOULD RETURN TO HIGH LEVELS ON 19 OCT.
III. Event Probabilities 19 OCT to 21 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 OCT 070 Predicted 19 OCT-21 OCT 070/071/071 90 Day Mean 18 OCT 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 OCT 006/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 OCT 023/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 OCT-21 OCT 020/020-020/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 OCT to 21 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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