Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 August 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Aug 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
***************************CORRECTED COPY****************************************** SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 AUG 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A 5 DEGREE FILAMENT AT
N13E27 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 16/0429Z AND 16/0512Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 17 AUG to 19 AUG
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 AUG 078 Predicted 17 AUG-19 AUG 078/076/076 90 Day Mean 16 AUG 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 AUG 008/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 AUG 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 AUG-19 AUG 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 AUG to 19 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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