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Viewing archive of Friday, 14 November 1997

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 NOV 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 8108 (N19E67) PRODUCED TWO C-CLASS FLARES TODAY. THE LARGEST WAS A C4/SF LONG DURATION EVENT AT 14/1038Z. SPACE-BASED SENSORS DETECTED A CORONAL MASS EJECTION PARTIAL HALO EVENT OFF THE NE LIMB THAT CAN BE CORRELATED WITH THIS EVENT. THE OTHER EVENT WAS A C3/SF FLARE WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP AT 14/0131Z. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO GROW AS IT ROTATES ONTO THE VISIBLE DISK. AN UNCORRELATED C1 EVENT WAS ALSO DETECTED AT 14/0713Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. REGION 8108 HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CONTINUED C-CLASS X-RAY FLARE PRODUCTION AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 NOV to 17 NOV
Class M05%10%15%
Class X01%01%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 NOV 093
  Predicted   15 NOV-17 NOV  094/096/096
  90 Day Mean        14 NOV 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 NOV  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 NOV  008/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 NOV-17 NOV  005/008-005/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 NOV to 17 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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