Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 November 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 NOV 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8113 (N20E22) GENERATED
AN M6/2N FLARE EARLY IN THE REPORTING PERIOD AT 29/2244Z. ALTHOUGH
THIS REGION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET SO FAR TODAY, WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS TO ITS CREDIT, THE REGION HAS GROWN
BY 30 PERCENT SINCE YESTERDAY TO 940 MILLIONTHS , AND INCREASED ITS
SPOT COUNT TO 46. REGION 8113 IS CURRENTLY A POTENT 'FSC'
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA GROUP. THE REMAINDER OF THE VISIBLE DISK IS
SPOTLESS AND UNREMARKABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8113 CONTINUES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT M-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY, IN ADDITION TO AN ISOLATED
X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON DAY
THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 01 DEC to 03 DEC
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 NOV 112 Predicted 01 DEC-03 DEC 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 30 NOV 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 NOV 001/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 NOV 007/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 DEC-03 DEC 010/008-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 DEC to 03 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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