Viewing archive of Friday, 19 December 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 DEC 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A LONG DURATION C1 EVENT BEGAN WITH A SLOW RISE IN X-RAY BACKGROUND LEVELS AT APPROXIMATELY 19/1800Z, REACHED THE C1 THRESHOLD AT 19/2005Z, AND REMAINED AT THAT LEVEL FOR APPROXIMATELY 50 MINUTES BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL DECLINE. THIS EVENT WAS NOT CORRELATED TO THE ONLY ACTIVE REGION CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8123 (N18W08), AND IS THOUGHT TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW REGION PREPARING TO ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHEAST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 20 DEC to 22 DEC
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 DEC 090
  Predicted   20 DEC-22 DEC  084/084/084
  90 Day Mean        19 DEC 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 DEC  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 DEC  003/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 DEC-22 DEC  010/010-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 DEC to 22 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%00%00%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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