Viewing archive of Monday, 29 December 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 DEC 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8126 (N19E05)
PRODUCED A SUBFLARE AT 29/1218UT BUT HAS BEEN QUIET SINCE. REGION
8124 (S20W37) EXHIBITED SLIGHT DECAY BUT MAINTAINS MINOR MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. NEW REGIONS 8129 (N28E36) AND 8130 (S29E30) WERE
NUMBERED TODAY WITH 8130 QUICKLY DEVELOPING A 5 SPOT BXO GROUP. THE
REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN VERY QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LOW TO
LOW. BOTH REGIONS 8124 AND 8126 HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARING. REGION 8130 IS DEVELOPING RATHER QUICKLY AND MAY SOON BE A
THREAT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. PERIODS
OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL HALO
CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 26 DEC AND THE FAVORABLE
POSITIONING OF A WEAK CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 30 DEC to 01 JAN
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 DEC 104 Predicted 30 DEC-01 JAN 104/105/105 90 Day Mean 29 DEC 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 DEC 001/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 DEC 002/002 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 DEC-01 JAN 010/005-015/013-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 DEC to 01 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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