SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8307 (N31W76) PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M1/SF FLARE AT 1539Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP. THE REGION ALSO PRODUCED TWO C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8319 (N18W54) CONTINUED TO GROW TODAY, BUT NOT AS RAPIDLY AS YESTERDAY. FLARES FROM THIS GROUP OCCURRED LESS FREQUENTLY THAN YESTERDAY AND CONSISTED OF A FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE GROUP HAS STRONG MAGNETIC FIELDS THAT ARE IN A BETA CONFIGURATION WITH A NORTH-SOUTH INVERSION LINE. REGION 8323 (S21E54) HAS ROTATED INTO VIEW AS A LARGE COMPACT GROUP. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DELTA CONFIGURATION IN A PENUMBRAL AREA NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GROUP. IN SPITE OF THE SIZE AND COMPLEXITY OF THE GROUP IT PRODUCED ONLY A FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR A MAJOR FLARE EVENT FROM ANY OF REGIONS 8307, 8319, OR 8323.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS, WITH SOME MINOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. A QUIET TO UNSETTLED FIELD BECAME ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM BETWEEN 0600-1200Z. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SAME HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY SOLAR WIND THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 4 DAYS. THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD, HOWEVER, TRANSITIONED TO A MORE CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWARD DIRECTION (MOSTLY FROM -3 TO -7 NT), DURING THE ENHANCED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY INTERVAL. THE FIELD CONTINUED TO BE ACTIVE FROM 1200-1800Z, BUT APPEARED TO BE CALMING SOMEWHAT DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX CONTINUES TO BE HIGH.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

  Observed       31 AUG 179
  Predicted   01 SEP-03 SEP  180/175/175
  90 Day Mean        31 AUG 120

OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 AUG  011/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 AUG  015/023
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 SEP-03 SEP  015/015-015/015-015/012