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Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 September 1998

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 SEP 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGIONS 8336 (S30E11), 8339 (S17E16), AND 8343 (N42E65) ALL PRODUCED SUBFLARES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT X-RAY ACTIVITY. FREQUENT TYPE III AND V SWEEPS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. REGION 8340 (N19E50) REMAINS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE REGION, COVERING 470 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA, BUT HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. NEW REGIONS 8341 (N19W58), 8342 (N17E38), AND 8343 WERE ALL NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8340.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED AS A LARGE EXTENSION OF THE NORTHERN CORONAL HOLE MOVES INTO A FAVORABLE GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION.
III. Event Probabilities 20 SEP to 22 SEP
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 SEP 127
  Predicted   20 SEP-22 SEP  130/130/135
  90 Day Mean        19 SEP 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 SEP  014/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 SEP  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 SEP-22 SEP  015/020-015/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 SEP to 22 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%40%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%45%45%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

All times in UTC

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