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Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 November 1998

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8395 (N22E21) REMAINS THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE VISIBLE DISK. IT IS A LONG F-TYPE GROUP WITH SOME MIXED POLARITIES. SUNSPOT GROWTH LEADING THIS GROUP AND TO THE NORTHEAST MAY BE BETTER IDENTIFIED AS SEPARATE SUNSPOT REGIONS, ALTHOUGH THESE AREAS HAVE NOT YET BEEN NUMBERED. REGION 8395 CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SMALL SUBFLARES, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT SINCE YESTERDAY'S MAJOR FLARE. NEW REGION 8397 (N15E68) IS ROTATING ONTO THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8395 MAY BE CAPABLE OF ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS NORMAL TO MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 30 NOV to 02 DEC
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 NOV 168
  Predicted   30 NOV-02 DEC  170/172/174
  90 Day Mean        29 NOV 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 NOV  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 NOV  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 NOV-02 DEC  015/018-015/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 NOV to 02 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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