Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 February 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 FEB 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8467 (N16W36)
PRODUCED TWO OPTICAL SUBFLARES AT 24/1658 AND 1726UT. OTHER THAN
THAT, THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE DURING THE
PERIOD. A NEW REGION, 8472 (N28E63), EMERGED AS A SINGLE SPOT AXX
ALPHA GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE LEVELS UNTIL
ABOUT 24/1800UT. AT THAT TIME THEY SLOWLY DECLINED TO BACKGROUND
LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 25 FEB to 27 FEB
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 FEB 120 Predicted 25 FEB-27 FEB 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 24 FEB 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 FEB 007/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 FEB 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 FEB-27 FEB 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 FEB to 27 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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